In this contribution we apply to Paranal a technique successfully tested and implemented in the ALTA Center to support LBT observations permitting us to provide optical turbulence forecasts at time scales of 1 and 2 hours with unprecedent accuracies and with important gain with respect to the forecasts done with simple real-time measurements (method by persistence). We use an autoregressive method that takes into account real-time measurements and forecast performed with a mesoscale atmospherical model. Results obtained so far give an RMSE of 0.1” at 1h for the seeing and a probability to detect the seeing weaker than the first tertile (calculated on climatological scale) equal to 98%. In this study we extend the techniques to other astroclimatic parameters beside the seeing.
Forecast of the atmospheric parameters and optical turbulence applied to the ground-based astronomy is very crucial mainly for the queue scheduling. So far, most efforts have been addressed by our group in developing algorithms for the optical turbulence (C2N) and annexed integrated astroclimatic parameters and quantifying the performances of the Astro-Meso-Nh package in reconstructing such parameters. Besides, intensive analyses on the Meso-Nh performances= in reconstructing atmospheric parameters relevant for the ground-based astronomy has been carried out. Our studies referred always to the night time regime. To extend the applications of our studies to the day time regime, we present, in this contribution, preliminary results obtained by comparing model outputs and measurements of classical atmospheric parameter relevant for the ground-based astronomy in night and day time. We chose as a test case, the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (Canary Islands), that offers a very extended set of measurements provided by different sensors belonging to different telescopes on the same summit/Observatory. The convective regime close to the ground typical of the day time is pretty different from the stable regime characterising the night time. This study aims therefore to enlarge the domain of validity of the Astro-Meso-Nh code to new turbulence regimes and it permits to cover the total 24 hours of a day. Such an approach will permit not only an application to solar telescopes (e.g. EST) but also applications to a much extended set of scientific fields, not only in astronomical context such as satellite communications.
In this contribution we evaluate the impact of filtering techniques in enhancing the accuracy of forecasts of optical turbulence and atmospheric parameters critical for ground-based telescopes. These techniques make use of the data continuously provided by the telescope sensors and instruments to improve the performances of real-time forecasts which have an impact on the telescope operation. In previous works we have already shown how a mesoscale high-frequency forecast (Meso-NH and Astro-Meso-Nh models can produce reliable predictions of different atmospheric parameters and the optical turbulence. The mesoscale forecast has an advantage on the global model in having a better implementation of the physical atmospheric processes, including turbulence, and produces an output with greater spatial resolution (up to 100m or beyond). Filtering techniques that make use of the real-time sensor data at the telescope may help in removing potential biases and trends which have an impact on short term mesoscale forecast and, as a consequence, may increase the accuracy of the final output. Given the complexity and cost of present and future top-class telescope installations, each improvement of forecasts of future observing conditions will definitely help in better allocating observing time, especially in queue-mode operation, and will definitely benefit the scientific community in medium-long term.
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