Probability analysis of seismic risk in the northern edge of the West Qinling fault based on the temporal and spatial evolution of Coulomb stress

Yi Zheng; Lin Zhu; Fuqiang Shi; Xiaoni Li

doi:10.1117/12.2691864

23 August 2023 Probability analysis of seismic risk in the northern edge of the West Qinling fault based on the temporal and spatial evolution of Coulomb stress

Yi Zheng, Lin Zhu, Fuqiang Shi, Xiaoni Li

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 12784, Second International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2023); 127840P (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2691864
Event: 2023 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2023), 2023, Kaifeng, China

Abstract

The northern edge of the West Qinling fault is an important large-scale strike slip fault zone in the northern Tibetan Plateau, which is the boundary fault between the Qaidam and Qilian secondary active blocks in the northern part of the Qinghai Tibet active block area. Based on the finite element viscoelastic kinematics model, this paper analyzes the Coulomb stress loading and unloading effect of historical strong earthquakes on the northern edge of the West Qinling fault. Furthermore, based on the Coulomb stress perturbation and the Dieterich earthquake occurrence rate model, the spatial distribution of the probability of future strong earthquakes in the northern edge of the West Qinling fault is given. The results show that the stress level accumulation in the Zhangxian-Huangxianggou section of the northern edge of the West Qinling Fault is relatively high. Meanwhile, The prediction results of earthquake probability based on Coulomb stress disturbance show that the probability level of this section is higher than that of other faults. Historical earthquake research indicates that this section is also a potential strong seismic gap and is close to its recurrence period; The occurrence of low b value and high probability foreshadows that the risk of future strong earthquakes in this section cannot be ignored.

Citation Download Citation

Yi Zheng, Lin Zhu, Fuqiang Shi, and Xiaoni Li "Probability analysis of seismic risk in the northern edge of the West Qinling fault based on the temporal and spatial evolution of Coulomb stress", Proc. SPIE 12784, Second International Conference on Applied Statistics, Computational Mathematics, and Software Engineering (ASCMSE 2023), 127840P (23 August 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2691864

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KEYWORDS

Earthquakes

Kinematics

Analytical research

Viscoelasticity

Systems modeling

Finite element methods

Inhomogeneities

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