Accident scenario analysis of expressway reconstruction and expansion project based on Bayesian network

Juan Li; Zhongguang Wu; Mingsheng Gao; Xiang Wang

doi:10.1117/12.2683859

14 June 2023 Accident scenario analysis of expressway reconstruction and expansion project based on Bayesian network

Juan Li, Zhongguang Wu, Mingsheng Gao, Xiang Wang

Proceedings Volume 12708, 3rd International Conference on Internet of Things and Smart City (IoTSC 2023）; 1270827 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2683859
Event: 3rd International Conference on Internet of Things and Smart City (IoTSC 2023）, 2023, Chongqing, China

Abstract

In order to clarify the evolution path of sudden traffic accidents under the special state of "construction while opening to traffic" in expressway reconstruction and expansion projects, and improve the scientificity of emergency command and decision-making and the pertinence of disposal measures, this paper first analyzes 12 accident scenarios of 4 typical risk events under the interactive influence of reconstruction and expansion construction operations and traffic operations. After that, the key scenario elements are selected based on the risk matrix, and the scenario representation method is determined by using knowledge element theory for reference. The scenario model of reconstruction and expansion of sudden traffic accidents based on Bayesian network is constructed to realize scenario deduction. Finally, taking the traffic accident of a province reconstruction and expansion project as an example, the accident development path is simulated. The results show that after the reconstruction and expansion of the construction lane is narrowed, the construction traffic organization is unreasonable, and the influence of rainy days is superimposed, the probability of vehicle scraping anti-collision facilities is 86.2%, the probability of local traffic congestion is 72.8%, and the probability of major traffic accidents with casualties and vehicle damage is 63.1%. Its evolution path is basically consistent with the actual development of accidents, and it is clear that on-site control, traffic diversion and remote diversion are the key measures to control the deterioration of accidents.

Citation Download Citation

Juan Li, Zhongguang Wu, Mingsheng Gao, and Xiang Wang "Accident scenario analysis of expressway reconstruction and expansion project based on Bayesian network", Proc. SPIE 12708, 3rd International Conference on Internet of Things and Smart City (IoTSC 2023）, 1270827 (14 June 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2683859

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KEYWORDS

Safety

Analytical research

Roads

Emergency preparedness

Probability theory

Decision making

Network security

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