Medium and long term load forecasting method of "coal to electricity" based on optimal combination forecasting

Zeyuan Shen; Wei Song; Haibo Zhao; Zuowen Zuo; He Huang; Yahong Xing; Chao Xue; Qi Li; Miao Wang

doi:10.1117/12.2619606

29 November 2021 Medium and long term load forecasting method of "coal to electricity" based on optimal combination forecasting

Zeyuan Shen, Wei Song, Haibo Zhao, Zuowen Zuo, He Huang, Yahong Xing, Chao Xue, Qi Li, Miao Wang

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 12080, 4th International Symposium on Power Electronics and Control Engineering (ISPECE 2021); 1208004 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2619606
Event: 4th International Symposium on Power Electronics and Control Engineering (ISPECE 2021), 2021, Nanchang, China

Abstract

Due to the volatility, randomness and seasonality of the load, there is no effective prediction model for the load development trend after the large-scale "coal to electricity" access to the rural distribution network, which affects the capacity planning of the rural distribution network. Aiming at this problem, this paper deeply analyzes the load characteristics and influencing factors of "coal to electricity" in rural areas, puts forward a screening method of single forecasting model based on grey correlation degree and effectiveness index, establishes the optimal medium and long-term combined forecasting model of "coal to electricity" load, and puts forward the flow chart of forecasting model. Finally, an example based on the historical data of a typical "coal to electricity" area is given to verify the results. The results show that the combined forecasting model can further improve the accuracy of the medium and long-term load forecasting results of "coal to electricity" through dynamic weighted optimization of the combined forecasting results.

Citation Download Citation

Zeyuan Shen, Wei Song, Haibo Zhao, Zuowen Zuo, He Huang, Yahong Xing, Chao Xue, Qi Li, and Miao Wang "Medium and long term load forecasting method of "coal to electricity" based on optimal combination forecasting", Proc. SPIE 12080, 4th International Symposium on Power Electronics and Control Engineering (ISPECE 2021), 1208004 (29 November 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2619606

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KEYWORDS

Transformers

Climatology

Data modeling

Optimization (mathematics)

Analytical research

Carbon

Defense and security

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