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Palm oil industry delivers a large part of Indonesia’s economy due to the fact that is the major exporter in the list of producers worldwide. However, environmental protection and sustainability of the oil palm plantation is a global issue since its development was identified as a driving factor of deforestation as well as forest degradation in Indonesia. Therefore, the projection of oil palm development is required in order to support the national program of low-carbon development planning. The objective of this study is to develop projections of oil palm expansion for 2045 that comprise of a business-as-usual scenario due to considering the complex interactions between historic and present land use, socioeconomic conditions and biophysical constraints. An integrative spatial approach of the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model was applied to explore land use changes for a scenario of further oil palm development in both Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia. According to the BAU scenario, the total estimated area planted with oil palm plantation in 2045, both Sumatra and Kalimantan, had reached 13.8 Mha and 10.6 Mha, respectively. If we compare with the estimation result of the BAU with legal compliance, no-expansion allowed in forest area, oil palm plantation in both islands are: 11.2 Mha in Sumatra and 7.3 Mha in Kalimantan. Meanwhile, based on the zero-deforestation scenario, the expansion of oil palm is still possible in both islands, Sumatra and Kalimantan, for about 1,632,019 ha and 869,844 ha, respectively. The different trend of their changes per year for each island shown the different characteristics of each island triggered by biophysical environments, the historical development of land, as well as social-economic conditions.
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