Dr. Olga Uritskaya Profile

Dr. Olga Uritskaya

at Peter the Great Saint-Petersburg Polytechnic Univ

SPIE Involvement:

Author

Publications (1)

This will count as one of your downloads.

You will have access to both the presentation and article (if available).

DOWNLOAD NOW

This content is available for download via your institution's subscription. To access this item, please sign in to your personal account.

Email or Username Forgot your username?

Password Forgot your password?

Show

Keep me signed in

No SPIE account? Create an account

Proceedings Article | 23 May 2005 Paper

Forecasting of magnitude and duration of currency crises based on the analysis of distortions of fractal scaling in exchange rate fluctuations

Olga Uritskaya

Proceedings Volume 5848, (2005) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.609400

KEYWORDS: Fractal analysis, Systems modeling, Statistical analysis, Statistical modeling, Algorithm development, Classification systems, Chaos, Data modeling, Dynamical systems, Physics

Read Abstract +

Results of fractal stability analysis of daily exchange rate fluctuations of more than 30 floating currencies for a 10-year period are presented. It is shown for the first time that small- and large-scale dynamical instabilities of national monetary systems correlate with deviations of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) exponent from the value 1.5 predicted by the efficient market hypothesis. The observed dependence is used for classification of long-term stability of floating exchange rates as well as for revealing various forms of distortion of stable currency dynamics prior to large-scale crises. A normal range of DFA exponents consistent with crisis-free long-term exchange rate fluctuations is determined, and several typical scenarios of unstable currency dynamics with DFA exponents fluctuating beyond the normal range are identified. It is shown that monetary crashes are usually preceded by prolonged periods of abnormal (decreased or increased) DFA exponent, with the after-crash exponent tending to the value 1.5 indicating a more reliable exchange rate dynamics. Statistically significant regression relations (R=0.99, p<0.01) between duration and magnitude of currency crises and the degree of distortion of monofractal patterns of exchange rate dynamics are found. It is demonstrated that the parameters of these relations characterizing small- and large-scale crises are nearly equal, which implies a common instability mechanism underlying these events. The obtained dependences have been used as a basic ingredient of a forecasting technique which provided correct in-sample predictions of monetary crisis magnitude and duration over various time scales. The developed technique can be recommended for real-time monitoring of dynamical stability of floating exchange rate systems and creating advanced early-warning-system models for currency crisis prevention.

My Library

You currently do not have any folders to save your paper to! Create a new folder below.

Folder Name

Folder Description

View contact details

UPDATE YOUR PROFILE

Is this your profile? Update it now.

Sign into your SPIE.org account

Don’t have a profile and want one?

Create an account on SPIE.org

Access to the requested content is limited to institutions that have purchased or subscribe to SPIE eBooks. You are receiving this notice because your organization may not have SPIE eBooks access.*

*Shibboleth/Open Athens users─please sign in to access your institution's subscriptions.

To obtain this item, you may purchase the complete book in print or electronic format on SPIE.org.

ORGANIZATIONAL
Sign in with credentials provided by your organization.

Organizational Username

Organizational Password

Show/Hide Password

INSTITUTIONAL
Select your institution to access the SPIE Digital Library.

SELECT YOUR INSTITUTION

PERSONAL
Sign in with your SPIE account to access your personal subscriptions or to use specific features such as save to my library, sign up for alerts, save searches, etc.

PERSONAL SIGN IN

No SPIE Account? Create one

PURCHASE THIS CONTENT

SUBSCRIBE TO DIGITAL LIBRARY

50 downloads per 1-year subscription

Members: $195

Non-members: $335 ADD TO CART

25 downloads per 1 - year subscription

Members: $145

Non-members: $250 ADD TO CART

PURCHASE SINGLE ARTICLE

Includes PDF, HTML & Video, when available

Members:

Non-members: ADD TO CART

Keywords/Phrases

Search In:

Publication Years