Credit risk models like Moody's KMV are now well established in the
market and give bond managers reliable default probabilities for
individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those
probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market
for corporate bonds. Inspired by the existence of scaling laws in
financial markets by Dacorogna et al. 2001 and DiMatteo et al. 2005
deviating from the Gaussian behavior, we develop a model that
quantitatively links those default probabilities to credit spreads
(market prices). The main input quantities to this study are merely
industry yield data of different times to maturity and expected
default frequencies (EDFs) of Moody's KMV.
The empirical results of this paper clearly indicate that the model
can be used to calculate approximate credit spreads (market prices)
from EDFs, independent of the time to maturity and the industry
sector under consideration. Moreover, the model is effective in an
out-of-sample setting, it produces consistent results on the
European bond market where data are scarce and can be adequately
used to approximate credit spreads on the corporate level.
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